MMA betting is a lucrative form of sports wagering for expert and seasoned punters. But like all forms of betting it requires discipline and a deep understanding of the sport to maximize profits. MMA betting involves more than just picking winners, however, and the best bettors search for value by looking for underdogs with a point to prove and fading favorites that show signs of declining form.
The MMA fight calendar is jam-packed, with big-name stars entering the octagon on a near weekly basis. This has prompted the emergence of a variety of MMA betting markets that cater to the needs of different types of bettors. The most popular option is the fight winner market, which offers odds on each fighter to win a contest, regardless of their method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, or technical decision). These markets are typically released a few days prior to every UFC event and other notable MMA matches that have been given significant exposure by online bookmakers.
Bettors can also place bets on the upcoming fight’s Over/Under round total, which is based on the number of rounds expected to be fought in the match. To set these totals, oddsmakers take into account the relative skill level of each fighter and the number of times each fighter has fought past opponents, including how many rounds those bouts went and whether they were closely-contested or decided by decision. These factors are then converted into an implied probability that is applied to both the Over and Under totals, which are then rounded up or down to reflect the vig or house edge taken by the sportsbook.
Oddsmakers also consider the age difference between a fighter’s two most recent foes when setting round totals, as younger opponents tend to win more often than their older counterparts in MMA. This is especially true in the lower weight classes, where the gap between fighters is much wider. However, some bettors are misled by this, as it’s easy to assume that a fighter who has won several recent fights against inferior opposition will continue to do so.
In addition to examining a fighter’s past results, bettors should also look at their social media activity before making a bet. This can reveal a lot about their training, as well as any problems they’re having with making weight for the fight. For example, some fighters will starve themselves or dehydrate themselves in an attempt to make weight for a fight, and these methods can leave them drained and in less than optimal condition come the time of the bout.
Unlike football and basketball, the MMA betting market has a limited amount of liquidity, so large bets or waves of public money can quickly move lines, especially on heavily-favored favorites. This is why it’s important to find value by fading the public in MMA, just as you would in NFL and NBA betting markets. This strategy can help you beat the bookmakers and improve your MMA betting odds.